Professor John McAneney is the Director of Risk Frontiers and a Professorial Fellow in the Division of Environmental & Life Sciences.
John has specialist expertise in Decision Analysis, Quantitative Risk Assessment, and Real Options valuations of strategic decision-making. He has a special interest in the application of these tools to valuing investments in R&D and Intellectual Property management and also for valuing Weather Derivatives.
John's background has been in research - environmental physics and weather risk, and more recently in financial modelling and consulting.
He has a PhD from the University of Madison-Wisconsin and some 20 years experience using quantitative analysis and mathematical thinking to solve real world problems. He has studied Decision-making and Strategy at The Wharton and Chicago Graduate Schools of Business.
John has authored 65 publications in various international scientific journals as well as a similar number of popular articles and client reports. He has also written a travelogue: "Where Wine Flows Like Water: A Gastronomic Pilgrimage through Spain" published by Harper Collins.
Dr Paul Somerville is Deputy Director of Risk Frontiers. He was born in Armidale, NSW and received his B.Sc. degree in Geophysics from the University of New England. He obtained his M.Sc. and Ph.D. in Geophysics at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada, and spent two years as a Visiting Research Fellow at the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo.
Dr Somerville has experienced numerous damaging earthquakes first hand, including the 1989 Loma Prieta, 1994 Northridge and 1995 Kobe earthquakes, and was involved in post-earthquake reconnaissance of these earthquakes, as well as other earthquakes in California, Japan, and Taiwan.
His main interests are in earthquake and tsunami hazards, and he has quantified these hazards and applied them in engineering practice to the seismic design and analysis of major buildings, bridges, dams and power generation facilities in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, the United States, and many other countries around the Pacific Rim. Dr Somerville has been involved in the development of building codes in the United States, and led developments in the engineering characterization of near-fault ground motions. He was a member of the Board of Directors of the Seismological Society of America and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, and was Chairman of the EERI panel that wrote the NSF sponsored report entitled “Securing Society against Catastrophic Earthquake Losses.”
Emeritus Professor Russell Blong retired as Director of Risk Frontiers in July 2003 after more than 30 years on the staff at Macquarie University. He still plays an active role in the supervision of graduate students, liaison with industry partners and in dreaming up seemingly impossible projects for others to work on.
Russell holds Masters degrees in Geography (Auckland) and Engineering Science (UNSW) and a PhD in Geomorphology (Sydney). He has researched a wide range of natural hazards and their consequences but his passions include volcanic, earthquake, flood and landslide hazards and their consequences in Australia, the South Pacific and Asia. His current interests include building damage assessments, loss modelling and integrated risk rating. He has published ten books and edited volumes and more than 200 research papers. He is the Past-President of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards (the Natural Hazards Society).
Laraine Hunter MSc(Hons) has been working as a natural hazards analyst for Risk Frontiers since 1994.
Recent projects include the centre's Earthquake Model for Australian Cities and Indonesia and continuation of Flood Risk Assessment, which evaluates risk at a property level (NHQ Volume 5, Issue 1).
Areas of interest include using GIS for modelling Natural Hazard Risk and programming models in Visual Basic and Fortran.
Laraine administers the local NT network, having gained a Certificate in Network Administration.
Roy Leigh has been a Risk Scientist with Risk Frontiers since 1998. Roy holds an Honours degree in Mechanical Engineering, a Graduate Diploma in Environmental Studies, an MSc (Environmental Economics) and a Masters of Project Management.
He has worked for engineering and environmental consulting companies and as a research fellow at the Climatic Impacts Centre at Macquarie University.
Roy’s research interests include the economic impacts of natural hazards, damage estimation models and techniques, the value of forecasts and warnings, and the potential impacts of global climate change on the insurance industry.
Among other things, Roy is heavily involved in the research and development work associated with Risk Frontiers' hail loss estimation model (HailAUS) and flood risk rating and damage model (FloodAUS).
Keping Chen is a Risk Scientist with Risk Frontiers. His main research interests are in hazards risk assessment, using GIS, remote sensing and applied mathematics. He is actively involved in various applied projects on quantitative risk assessment and catastrophe loss modelling, such as quantifying bushfire penetration into urban areas, developing natural hazard risk ratings at multiple spatial units ranging from individual addresses to postcodes, and programming flood loss estimation modules of FloodAUS.
Broadly, Keping’s research reflects the duality between physical and human geography, and is in pursuit of spatially integrated risk science. Some topics under investigation include (1) the integration of physical environmental and socioeconomic data and their scale issues; (2) the importance of selecting appropriate spatial units of analysis for effective risk assessment; (3) the use of geostatistics for addressing spatial and temporal non-stationarities and associated uncertainties in risk modelling; and (4) the development of suitable decision support methods and tools for facilitating risk management in practice.
Keping completed his PhD thesis in 2000. His thesis developed an integrated approach to natural hazards risk assessment in a GIS environment that includes three components – data integration, risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. He obtained his MSc degree from the Institute of Environmental Sciences (State Key Lab for Water Environment and Simulation), Beijing Normal University, China.
Ryan Crompton Ryan Crompton is a Catastrophe Risk Analyst with Risk Frontiers. Ryan has a BSc (Advanced Mathematics) and Postgraduate Diploma in Accounting. He has previous experience in numerical modelling of oceans in order to better understand El Nino-Southern Oscillation events.
Ryan is responsible for the research and development work associated with Risk Frontiers' tropical cyclone loss estimation model (CyclAUS). He also has a strong interest in Alternative Risk Transfer, particularly the pricing and structure of Catastrophe Bonds.
Jeffrey Fisher is a Catastrophe Risk Analyst with Risk Frontiers. He holds a BSc (Advanced Mathematics and Ancient History) from Macquarie University and has interests in atmospheric science and computing.
Jeffrey's current research activities include the impact of perceived errors in catastrophe models on reinsurance negotiations, floods and floodplain management and the later Roman emperors.
Kat Haynes has recently arrived at Risk Frontiers having just submitted her PhD thesis. Her doctoral research was carried out within the Centre of Environmental Risk, a centre within the School of Environmental Sciences , at the University of East Anglia , Norwich , UK .
Kat carried out her fieldwork on the volcanically active island of Montserrat in the West Indies, using interviews and survey techniques with a range of respondents (government and emergency management officials, scientists and members of the lay public) to identify differences in perceptions of risk and reactions towards the emergency management activities.
The research on Montserrat demonstrated that risk communication is not simply a process of communicating clear messages and instructions to the public. It must be recognised that a complex web of social influences and filters will act to amplify or attenuate the risks. The process must incorporate feedback and be interactive so that lay views are incorporated into communications and management plans.
Kat's post at Risk Frontiers is based upon the realisation that social issues are an important part of natural hazards research and risk management solutions. Future projects will involve partnerships between other academic institutions and client based contracts. This will enable the integration of social data into risk / hazard models and improve standards if risk communication.
Benfield (Australia) has recently funded a new position at Risk Frontiers to be known as The Benfield Research Fellow on Volcanic Hazards. As with most other work undertaken at Risk Frontiers, this position will have a strong insurance focus and it recognises that volcanic hazards have rarely been considered a serious threat to the industry. In some parts of the world this cannot be taken with any surety. The first such Benfield Fellow is Christina Magill
In 2005 Christina completed a PhD at Risk Frontiers where, under Professor Blong's tutelage, she developed a probabilistic volcanic loss model (VolcaNZ) for the Auckland Region that calculates exceedance loss statistics for damage to residential buildings as the result of volcanic ash falls. Ash falls arising from large distal volcanic centres in the central North Island, Taranaki and the local Auckland volcanic field are all considered. This work has been documented in a number of publications in international journals.
The Benfield fellowship will allow Christina to expand VolcaNZ to other citiies and towns within the North Island of New Zealand and investigate likely damage to commercial and industrial buildings. Longer-term implications of this work for the insurance industry are likely to be in other jurisdictions. Like the North Island of New Zealand, many other regions are at risk from multiple volcanic centres and hazards. Methodologies developed during this fellowship may be adapted to these regions and allow assessement of volcanic losses to be taken into account alongside windstorm and earthquake that have traditionally driven reinsurance pricing.
Carol Robertson is Risk Frontiers' Office Manager. Carol is an experienced administrator and personal assistant who has worked in a wide variety of fields developing strong presentation, organisation and communication skills..
Carol is responsible for: the production of newsletters, reports, presentations; the design and maintenance of the Risk Frontiers' website; email publishing of briefing notes for sponsors and administrative tasks which ensure the smooth-running of the centre.
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Sandra Schuster began her PhD in 2002. She is interested in meteorological perils, especially severe thunderstorms, hail risk and insured losses.
Her work involves the use of radar in order to estimate urban hail damage as well as physical and loss modelling. Other research interests include the impact of climate change on the frequency and severely of severe storms and its implications for the insurance market.
Sandra graduated in Atmospheric Physics from the University of Kiel, Germany. She has worked in Germany, Cambridge UK, the Arctic (and even on the North Pole) on research topics considering the climatic changes in Polar Regions.
Susanna Jenkins began her PhD at Risk Frontiers in April 2005. She is interested in the hazards from explosive volcanic eruptions. It is anticipated that her project will involve physical and loss modelling, particularly in relation to multi-phase eruptions and their economic impact.
Susanna has worked on and around volcanoes in Italy, Mexico, America and New Zealand. Research projects include volcanic hazard and risk evaluation, volcano monitoring and caldera unrest.
She holds an MSc in Geophysical Hazards from University College London and a BSc in Geology from the University of Leeds, UK.
Susanna's homepage provides more detail on current research.
Shayne McGregor is expanding on his Masters (hons) research which investigated the Pacific Ocean’s decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. These decadal variations of SST have been entitled the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the scientific literature and are proposed to have links with the frequency, intensity and predictability of ENSO. Recent research has also shown links between the phase of the IPO/PDO and the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on variables of Australian Climate, such as rainfall, temperature, stream flow and drought. The main goals of Shayne’s PhD research are to:
(i) investigate the mechanisms forcing the observed Pacific Ocean decadal SST variability using a series of ocean circulation models; (ii) develop a method that uses the newly identified mechanisms forcing this decadal SST variability to predict decadal variations in Pacific Ocean SSTs; and (iii) test the usefulness of this newly developed predictability method on identifying the probability of changes in ENSO frequency and amplitude.
Daryl McClure has ten years of experience in seismic engineering and risk consulting spanning hazard analysis, engineering design and probabilistic loss estimation. He holds degrees in Structural Engineering (BEng), Earthquake Engineering (MSc, DIC) and Finance (MiF).
Daryl has an extensive understanding of the seismic design and vulnerability of structures ranging from commercial buildings to heavy industrial facilities and a comprehensive knowledge of construction practice adopted in the Americas, Asia, Middle East, Australasia, the South Pacific and Europe. His past research activities include recommendations and provisions for EC8, the European seismic design code, and the publication of a number of related technical articles in international engineering journals.
Through his risk consulting Daryl has a working knowledge of the insurance industry, layered reinsurance treaties and a particular interest in portfolio engineering, dynamic financial analysis and alternative risk transfer using the capital markets and OTC financial instruments.
Dale Dominey-Howes joined Macquarie University in January 2003.
Dale holds a BSc from London University and a PhD in Geohazards from Coventry University (UK).
Dale's research interests include natural hazards (particularly earthquakes, sea level change, storm surges, tropical cyclones, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions); hazard, risk and vulnerability assessment and modelling and disaster management
Research projects have been completed in the United Kingdom, Greece, Turkey, India, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea and Australia. Research and consultancy contracts have been undertaken for a variety of organisations that include the World Health Organisation, UK government Department for International Development, Natural Environmental Research Council (UK), European Union, insurance and re-insurance companies.
Colin Packham is an Associate of the Chartered Insurance Institute (London).
Until he retired at the end of 1998, Colin was Product Manager, Property for Swiss Reinsurance Co, Sydney. In this and his previous role as Underwriting Manager of Mercantile & General Reinsurance Co of Australia, he was particularly active in the areas of Natural Perils underwriting, Crop Reinsurance, and Reinsurance Training. He was lecturer in Reinsurance at the University of Technology, Sydney from 1991 to 1994.
He is author of various publications on Natural Perils, Reinsurance and Crop Insurance. In 2000, “Natural Perils in Australia and New Zealand”, was published by Swiss Re, written by Russell Blong, David Sinai of Swiss Re, and Colin. This is a completely revised and expanded work following “Natural Perils in Australia, a Reinsurer’s Perspective”, published by Mercantile & General in 1991, written by John Woodward and Colin.
As an associate of Risk Frontiers, Colin is able to give advice to the team on the way reinsurers approach the pricing of natural perils, insurance industry practice regarding PML assessment, as well as crop hail insurance and reinsurance.
Andrew Gissing is a flood management specialist with the NSW State Emergency Service, responsible for the preparation of flood emergency management plans.
Andrew is a former student of the centre and holds a Masters (Honours) degree in Science and a Bachelors degree in Economics. His thesis, completed in 2002, evaluated various aspects of the Kempsey 2001 flood, including commercial flood damage, flood warnings and business continuity planning.
His current interests include flood damage estimation, emergency management, flood warning, disaster review methodology, tsunami, storm surge, dam failure and geographic information systems.
George R Walker ME PhD FIEAust FIPENZ FAIB began his academic life studying civil engineering at what is now the University of Auckland . This was followed by an ME and a PhD at the same university. His PhD, awarded in 1966, was the first by a New Zealand university in Earthquake Engineering. It set the pattern for a life specialising in the effects of disasters. In 1968 he joined what is now James Cook University in Townsville, and after experiencing Cyclone Althea in Townsville in 1971, began his studies in Wind Engineering with a particular focus on the performance of houses in tropical cyclones. Following the devastation of Darwin by Cyclone Tracy on Christmas Day 1974 he led the investigation of damage commissioned by the Australian Government on which the reconstruction of Darwin was based. In 1976 he became an Associate Professor and over the next 15 years or so played a major role in the development of wind resistant building standards in Australia. In 1989 he resigned from the University to become Assistant Chief of the CSIRO Division of Building Construction and Engineering, in charge of their North Ryde laboratory, and in 1994 joined what is now Aon Re Australia as Head of Strategic Development.
In the early 1980's George became involved in the estimation of PML's for the reinsurance industry, and while at CSIRO played a key role in the development for Suncorp of one of Australia's first catastrophe loss models. This led to his move to Aon where until his recent retirement from full-time work he has played a major role in the development and application of reinsurance related catastrophe insurance loss modelling expertise in Australia and New Zealand. This work has led to international recognition as a leader in the field of disaster insurance.
Colin Wastell has been involved in research into psychologically traumatised groups for nearly 20 years. He completed his PhD in 1993 which examined the impact of vicarious psychological trauma on paramedics. He has published the results of empirical studies in trauma, especially on the role of emotion processes (Wastell, 1999, 2002; Uren & Wastell, 2002). These papers emphasised the critical role of emotion in both the experience of trauma and recovery from it. Colin has also presented at conferences on psychological trauma from 1992 onward (Wastell 2003). These presentations have covered a diverse set of populations including emergency services personnel, psychological therapists and military veterans and serving personnel. His research in military populations on critical incident impact has been published (Wastell, Cairns & Perkins, 2001). Colin has also been interested in the mental processes that occur in response to traumatic situations including man made and natural disasters. His empirical research in this area has included examining the concept of alexithymia in relation to personality (Wastell & Booth 2003) and models of theory of mind (Wastell & Taylor, 2002). Colin’s book “Understanding Trauma and Emotion” (Wastell, 2005) is a comprehensive statement of his research in the area of psychological trauma to date. Since 2000 Colin has been interested in, and is currently conducting empirical research into, human reasoning and decision making. He became interested in this as a result of his psychological trauma research and examining the factors that influenced human decision making following a traumatic event. He has been involved in research examining the utilisation of different reasoning processes in analysis and risk perception. This has been combined with his interest in emotion processes, especially fear and anger. Colin recently presented at the Society for Judgment and Decision Making Conference in Toronto (Wastell, 2005) and is presently a member of the Psychology Department as well as being an associate of Risk Frontiers and the Macquarie University Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism.
